More than a decade after carrying Queen Elizabeth II to one of the most emotional victories of her reign, Estimate continues to leave her mark on the sport she helped define.
The bay filly etched her name into racing history in 2013 when she became the first horse owned by a reigning monarch to win the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, prompting scenes of delight from the late Queen that were seen around the world.
Although her racing career came to an end in 2014, Estimate’s story was far from over.
Retired to the royal broodmare band, the daughter of Monsun began a new chapter at the Sandringham Stud, where she was entrusted with continuing one of the most famous breeding operations in the world. It was a role she was seemingly born for.
Estimate’s first foal was the Dubawi colt Calculation, born in 2016. Trained, like his mother, by Sir Michael Stoute, he won twice and amassed more than £39,000 in prize money, earning a peak Racing Post Rating of 97.
A year later came Approximate, another son of Dubawi. Although he failed to make much impact on the racecourse, Estimate’s next offspring proved rather more successful.
Evaluation, foaled in 2018 and also by Dubawi, enjoyed a fruitful career on the Flat and over hurdles. Trained by Keith Dalgleish on the Flat before moving to Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore, he won six races on the Flat and later added a victory over jumps, earning more than £125,000 in prize money.
Estimate’s influence continued with Market Value, a Siyouni filly born in 2020 and trained by William Haggas. The mare has been successful once from six starts and remains lightly raced.
Her youngest notable offspring is Reaching High, a son of Sea The Stars born in 2021. Now trained by Willie Mullins, he has shown staying promise, winning over two and a half miles and earning a Racing Post Rating of 96.
He was sent off favourite in Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes, however, finished a disappointing last place.
None of Estimate’s offspring has yet reached the heights of their celebrated mother, whose Gold Cup triumph remains one of the defining moments in Royal Ascot history. But her legacy is measured by more than trophies.
For Queen Elizabeth II, breeding racehorses was every bit as important as owning them. She often spoke of the satisfaction that came from seeing generations of horses develop, and Estimate occupied a special place within that tradition.
The mare’s victory in 2013 brought the Queen immense joy, but perhaps her greatest contribution has been ensuring that the bloodlines which delivered that historic afternoon continue into future generations.
Thirteen years on from that unforgettable Gold Cup success, Estimate’s name still resonates at Royal Ascot. The footage of her dramatic victory is replayed every year, while her descendants continue to carry the hopes of the royal colours.
For a horse that gave Queen Elizabeth II one of the happiest moments of her life, it seems fitting that Estimate’s story is still being written.
