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So we have a Hung Parliament – what happens next?

When the exit poll was revealed on Thursday evening, it was an unexpected surprise, to say the least. It is the result that the Conservatives were dreading and others were hoping for. Theresa May’s gamble didn’t pay off and it might have lost her the keys to Number 10 Downing Street. But what happens next? When will the new government be in place? Who will the new government be? Royal Central’s Editor in Chief and resident political expert, Charlie Proctor, takes us through the possibilities.

What happens to Theresa May?

Theresa May’s future now hangs in the balance. For a Prime Minister to give up a parliamentary majority voluntarily would be a remarkable thing. The Leader of the Conservative Party knew calling a General Election would be a gamble, and it was a gamble that didn’t pay off. Senior parliamentary figures are already calling for Mrs May to resign, including Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Anna Soubry. In my view, it is hard to see how the 60-year-old can possibly stay on as Conservative Party Leader and Prime Minister after this catastrophic result.

Number 10 Via Flickr

Many see the snap election being called for party reasons despite the government already has a majority. Similarly, David Cameron was forced to resign under similar circumstances in 2016 following the EU referendum result, a poll the Prime Minister regretted calling. If indeed Theresa May does resign, it is likely Amber Rudd or Boris Johnson will take over as Conservative Party Leader and possibly Prime Minister, although that is sheer speculation on my point.

Coalition or no coalition?

The Conservative Party and the Labour Party will now desperately seeking the support of smaller parties to support them in order to create a majority. The Queen and the state are reluctant to appoint a government who does not command at least half of the support available in the House of Commons, otherwise, new laws and legislation will likely not get passed. As seen in 2010, the Conservative Party lacked an overall majority so formed a formal coalition with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats.

Former Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, David Cameron and Nick Clegg (Number 10 via Flickr CC)

This is not likely to happen again. The Conservatives and Lib Dems were campaigning on completely different platforms on all issues, especially the matter of Brexit. The Lib Dems want a second referendum on the matter. The Conservatives will certainly not agree to this. Similarly, the Scottish National Party want a second independence referendum. This does not align with Tory values meaning a coalition is off the table.

The only option for the Conservative Party is a coalition with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party.

Could Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP hold the keys to Number 10? (Photo: DUP Photos via Flickr CC)

So what are Labour’s chances of forming a coalition with the other parties? Smaller parties will be happier to work with Jeremy Corbyn, however, even with all the minority parties in a coalition together, it is still unlikely a parliamentary majority will be achieved. This is because the SNP have lost a significant number of seats in Parliament and Nicola Sturgeon might have been Mr Corbyn’s saving grace. Leader of the Green Party Caroline Lucas has said that she will work with Labour, but it will not make any difference as the Green party currently only have one MP. Lib Dem Leader Tim Farron has ruled out a coalition with any party.

As for UKIP, they haven’t got a single MP in Parliament now meaning they will not be relevant in any deals or coalitions.

Minority government?

If a coalition cannot be achieved, there can be a minority government. This is where the 326 majority is not possible, but the largest party is still in charge. This is very problematic though and it is not encouraged due to the fact that there will be more opposition MPs in the chamber than there will be government MPs. As a result, new laws and legislation will become difficult to pass.

UK PARLIAMENT VIA FLICKR CC

Another General Election?

There is a real possibility that a second General Election will be called. This will happen if a coalition government cannot be formed and if a minority government is not appropriate. If a new election is called, it will happen in the not too distant future as a period of instability has now been created. Sir Eric Pickles is one political heavyweight who has said that an Autumn election is likely, so sorry Brenda from Bristol but we might all have to go to the polls again!

On another matter, with the Scottish National Party losing so many seats in the election, a second independence referendum is surely now a distant memory. Pundits will argue that the loss of seats is a clear message that the people of Scotland are rejecting the proposition of a second referendum.

But what about Brexit?

I honestly cannot begin to guess what will happen with Brexit. Negotiations are due to start in Brussels in less than two weeks. If no government is in power by then, the UK will not look ‘strong and stable’. Indeed, Theresa May called the early election to create a period of stability. Instead, she has done the opposite.

There is certainly some wiggle room now in terms of Brexit. Because the Conservatives did not get an overall majority, opposition MPs will say it is because the electorate refused Mrs May’s proposition of a hard Brexit.

So, in conclusion, we are stuck! The days and weeks ahead will be interesting as the uncertainty continues. One thing we do know for certain though is that Larry the Cat will remain in Number 10 no matter who becomes Prime Minister.

Larry the Cat will be staying in Downing Street (Number 10 via Flickr CC)

FEATURED PHOTO CREDITS: NUMBER 10, UK PARLIAMENT, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND UNDERCLASSRISING ALL VIA FLICKR CC

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